Washington: As the US withdraws from international affairs, the conversation about the next superpower should move to either India or Germany, a top American analyst specialising in foreign policy and global political risk has said.
Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, the leading political risk research and consulting firm, said the US is no longer prepared to be the “cheerleader for global values” and the year 2017 would be remembered as the one when the “idea of US-led global environment is no longer with us.”
“2017 is the year that we close the chapter on a US-led global order that we’ve basically lived with since 1945,” he said, but made clear that the United States is unlikely to be replaced by any other country in the immediate future.
“I would say that the Germans are a good place to go to have these conversations, but will the Germans be global leaders? No,” he said in a conversation with Microsoft’s Brad Smith during the Microsoft Inspire 2017 Conference yesterday.
“(Prime Minister Narendra) Modi and India, a great place to go to have this conversation. But will the Indians be the global leaders?
“India has about 1.3 billion people and New Zealand has four million. Those two countries have the same number of diplomats,” Bremmer said.
“Nobody asks New Zealand to get anything done. Right? But India, because they’ve got 1.3 billion people, we’re, like, ‘India can be a part of the solution’.
“There are a lot of Indian entrepreneurs that can be a part of the solution, but the bandwidth constraints of the Indian government to actually do global stuff are immense, they’re immense,” Bremmer said, suggesting the limitations of India’s capacity to become the leader of the world.
On China, he said that the country’s aggressive rise has led to several countries moving towards the United States.
“Some countries in Asia will become more US oriented because China will be seen as more competitive. I certainly see this as emerging in a big way under Modi’s India,” he said.
“I see this in a big way with Shinzo Abe in Japan under siege, but wanting to ensure he changes his constitution and gets more of a security focus before he leaves,” he said.
According to him, China is one country in the world today of size with a global economic strategy. “And it’s the Chinese who are writing big checks and they’re thinking economically around the world… (But) the Chinese are not promoting rule of law and liberal democracy,” he said.